Global Economic Development

This book is to provide international civil servants, government officials and business persons with data, analytical frameworks and preliminary scenarios that will help them make better economic and commercial decisions. The book covers the world economy, its major regions and some of its economically more important countries. It looks at the growth of production, the distribution of income, some major primary and service industries and economic policies.The primary time focus is the twenty-first century. The year 2000 is taken as the base year and preliminary scenarios are developed for four periods: the first decade (2001 to 2010), the next fifteen years (2011 to 2025), the second quarter (2026 to 2050) and the latter half (2051 to 2100) of the century. To provide perspective, the scenario periods are sandwiched between a broad-brush review of developments leading up to the twenty-first century and a discussion of some possibilities for the infinitely long period beyond that century.The scenarios in this book are therefore all long term. This is not meant to downplay the importance of short-term scenarios. In most instances, it is the short-term that is important, and it is, therefore, the period on which most economists focus. However, there is also room for longer-term scenarios and it is important that policymakers and business persons consider them if they are to foster a prosperous, long-term future for their constituents and shareholders. In the short run, many events are largely determined, but in the longer term, there is often scope for influencing both their form and their magnitude.