Bøger af Dan Gardner

Drøm stort – og se drømmen blive virkelighed!Alle storbyer i verden har historier om bragende fiaskoer – om milliardbyggerier og anlægsprojekter, der løb løbsk i astronomiske budgetoverskridelser og heftige forsinkelser.Når det går galt i megaprojekterne, går det for det meste meget galt. Igen og igen ender de store visioner i vilde mareridt. Verden er også fuld af kuldsejlede projekter i mindre skala: opstart af virksomheder, husombygninger, nye IT-systemer eller overskredne deadlines på arbejde. Resultatet lever sjældent op til forventningerne. Men hvorfor?Professor Bent Flyvbjerg har viet sin karriere til at forstå, hvad der adskiller succes fra fiasko i projekter. I FÅ STORE TING GJORT trækker han på sin omfattende ekspertise i megaprojekter i milliardklassen, big data og forskning.Bogen er fuld af levende historier om projekter, der gik godt eller skidt, lige fra megaprojekter som operahusene i København og Sydney, Storebæltsforbindelsen og udviklingen af Pixar-film til en lille håbløs køkkenrenovering.FÅ STORE TING GJORT graver dybt i projektfortællingerne og identificerer de værste – og helt almindelige – faldgruber og fejlslutninger. Bogen beskriver forskningsbaserede principper for god projektledelse, hvor man bl.a. planlægger langsomt og gennemtænkt – og handler hurtigt og beslutsomt, når projektet skal føres ud i livet.Oversat fra engelsk (How Big Things Get Done) af Stig W. Jørgensen

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER *; NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST';The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman'sThinking, Fast and Slow.'Jason Zweig,TheWall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "e;superforecasters."e; In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic.

What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? This book offers an insight into what we can learn from this elite group. It also shows the methods used by the superforecasters which enable them to out perform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data.

We are the safest humans who ever lived - the statistics prove it. And yet the media tells a different story with its warnings and scare stories. How is it possible that anxiety has become the stuff of daily life?In this ground-breaking, compulsively readable book, Dan Gardner shows how our flawed strategies for perceiving risk influence our lives, often with unforeseen and sometimes-tragic consequences. He throws light on our paranoia about everything from paedophiles to terrorism and reveals how the most significant threats are actually the mundane risks to which we pay little attention.Speaking to psychologists and scientists, as well as looking at the influence of the media and politicians, Gardner uncovers one of the central puzzles of our time: why are the safest people in history living in a culture of fear?

Unique characters drawn in a humorous style to bring a smile to the reader

Smiles of various sizes and number of teeth are in this edition of Ditto Wits

Unique characters drawn in a humorous style to bring a smile to the reader

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future everythng from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.